How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled talks on the almost four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in August yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Julie Stephens
Julie Stephens

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