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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.